Classical music in crisis - this what the future looks like

So classical music finds itself in a crisis. No ability to perform concerts in person during the coronavirus restrictions, and woefully underprepared for the online world. We’ve already seen a mad dash to livestream any and all content with little planning or strategy. This crisis is going to be a long journey, so here’s my prediction of the six stages of what’s going to happen.

I’m also aware that this is going to be a shit read with some potentially hard truths… but the good news is that there is some potential hope at the end 

(It’s also longer than expected, so I’ve put in a coffee break)

Stage 1 – shock and short-term cancellations

We’ve already seen this. Cancellations of concerts, tours, and all forms of performances. On top of that, there is also the shock for musicians of having no work. Most cancellations are still short term, with orchestras initially suggesting they will be back performing by mid-April.

For music teachers, there will be the shock of transferring to being online and working out how to do this, but after this initial shock it will be a more constant and stable source of income.

Stage 2 – a panicked reaction, denial, spamming of content, and a supportive audience

This is mainly where we are now (April 8th). Most of the classical music world has now panicked and realised they should probably do something online to connect to audiences, so are putting as much as possible online with little thought to strategy, how to maximise its engagement and impact. You may have noticed one or two livestreamed concerts. 

There will be a denial that 90% of the classical music world is unprepared for going online (particularly with organisations) and that they have neglected this platform for years, as well as a denial that they will need new ideas, techniques, and even external help for the challenges to come.

Denial will be compounded by having an incredibly willing and supportive audience who will be watching, liking, sharing, and even donating as much as they can to help out as a reaction to the shock of live classical music being cancelled and musicians/orchestras having significantly reduced income.

This willing audience will give a false impression as to how things are going, and poor content will receive more views and engagements than normal.

In reality, it will be very hard to break through all this noise online in a meaningful way.

Stage 3 – longer term cancellations, continued denial, and potential happiness at having taken action

We’re starting to see the first part of this now. As summer festivals are cancelled, an awareness of things not coming back to normal by the start of May is being realised. Festivals will be the first to cancel as it’s their preparations that being disrupted at the moment (see all opera festivals).  Although most orchestras haven’t changed their announcements about cancellations, behind closed doors there will be making plans for this to become reality. 

In fairness, most of the world hasn’t quite realised the full effect of this, despite warnings of 6 months or even 12 months of disruption through social distancing measures.

A bit later than other festivals, there will also come the announcement that the BBC Proms will be cancelled. Not a dig at the Proms, there are more turning wheels and also more potential for pulling it off, and also organising some sort of digital replacement, so it’s right this announcement will come later.

Those musicians who rely on freelance performances will inevitably be required to get temporary 2nd jobs, or innovate incredibly quickly, but some may try to wait this out.

Denial will continue as to the reality of how things are going online for organisations and musicians, and actually most will come to a moment where happiness is reached as there has been a crisis, action has been taken, and there is positive feedback and support from this willing audience. 

Again, this support and feedback will give a false impression as to how things are going as content will be “successful” due to goodwill of the audience rather than merit. 

Stage 4 – audience disinterest, the reality of being online, and potential fear

My music teacher at college had a great metaphor for describing how much ornamentation to put into a Bach choral. It was called the “chocolate éclair effect”. It’s complex and scientific, but here it is: 

1 chocolate éclair is great

2 chocolate éclairs are amazing

3 chocolate éclairs feel a bit queasy 

4 chocolate éclairs are sickly

5 chocolate éclairs = vomit

In depth stuff right?

After the initial weeks of support from audiences online, and watching as many videos as possible, viewers will be reaching their 4th or 5th chocolate éclair.

A universal truth will start to take hold…  

Shit content is shit content

Whereas in stages 1, 2, and 3 anything will work and seem good, now only great content will survive as the rest sinks to the bottom and isn’t watched or engaged with.

The reality of being online will also be compounded. Now classical music will have to compete for attention with EVERYTHING on the internet. Why watch an orchestra livestream a pre-recorded concert of Brahms 2 or a Spotify “listen-a-long” with little thought or effort put into delivery, when I can binge watch the entirety of Tiger King on Netflix? Come to think of it, Disney Plus just launched and I could sign up to that… oh and then there’s ALL OF YOUTUBE.

As anyone working outside of classical music in online content will tell you, it is an insanely difficult world where you are always in a battle for people’s attention. To a large extent, classical music has been sheltered or partly sheltered from this reality for quite some time.

So… online audiences will drop off, potentially significantly. As the impact of this is felt, individual musicians may stop to put content online as the perceived rewards are no longer being felt. For those creating good content, it will be easier to break through as the status quo online returns to a meritocracy.

Also, the reality for people in their own situations will start to take hold as everyone bunkers down to sort out their own crap in their lives. As well as not engaging with digital content, some families may be unable to pay for lessons and some music teachers will see student drop off.

Fear will begin to kick in as reality starts to take hold.

Stage 5 – reality bites, bigger threats, depression…and casualties

Welcome to the shittiest section! So, this is the designated coffee break. Grab yourself a drink… and some chocolate while you’re at it.

As mentioned, there have been warnings that both 6 months and 12 months of disruption to due to social distancing are possible. Personally, I’m prepping for 12 months before “normality” resumes.

By the time we get into summer, it will become clear that despite the situation being shit before, it won’t miraculously improve by the time the new concert season starts in September.

Even if social distancing restrictions are lifted entirely, there will be a cautious and financially broke public who will be reluctant to come to live music. Realistically, restrictions will be lifted in part and it is highly likely large gathers will still be constrained, so large performances will continue to be affected, impacted orchestras and freelancers the most.

Any concerts by orchestras that do occur will have to be incredibly reserved in both their ambition and scale, and realistically will perform a reduced season… meaning fewer opportunities for freelance performers.

Music teachers (especially with contracts) will continue to weather the storm better than most, but in reality, are to expect the possibility of further drop offs. If prepared for this with a strong online teaching offering, they should be in a relatively strong position.

Organisations will now face their biggest crisis. Any financial reserves will have gone, corporate funding and sponsorship will be significantly down, Arts Council funding will have depleted, and potentially other foundations won’t be in a position to support in the same way. This will then be compounded by philanthropy from individuals being significantly reduced as people are worse off.

In a recent statement, Arts Council England said that they expect some arts organisations to “topple”. If it hasn’t happened by the end of summer, this is when it will happen. We’re going to see some organisations go bankrupt and there will be surprised as to who they are. My incredibly optimistic (and hopeful) prediction is that in the UK we’ll have lost 3 medium and large classical music organisations (festivals, orchestras, operas etc) by 2021. We’ve already lost one artist management agency.

These may not necessarily be the ones starting in the most precarious situation, but will be the ones who have adapted the slowest. No independent classical music organisation has the reserves to ride this out without change.

(BBC orchestras will be safe due to their funding – and despite making initial noises about creating digital content, will also be the ones adopting to being online the slowest and least successfully)

In the USA, the situation will be worse, partly as all predictions look like it will be the worst hit by coronavirus going forwards. The nature of orchestra contracts in the USA for full time musicians leaves them in a more precarious position, and we’ve already seen redundancies. 

For everyone involved, this is when the depression about the whole situation will really take hold. If organisations and musicians haven’t adapted, there will be little room for positivity.

Stage 6 – “the two paths”

 Although this is the final stage, the two paths can be taken at any point above. These are “the path of disillusionment”, and “the path of acceptance and change”.

The path of disillusionment

This whole journey is going to be hard. Making a living in classical music was hard enough as it is before all this. Many freelance performers will become understandably disillusioned and change careers. The need to pay the bills will (rightly) outweigh the need to be a musician. As much as I love classical music, there are greater things in life… ie family and health.

Again, music teachers will be the best off, but ones who have found adapting to using technology to teach may also decide for a career change at this time.

Organisations will be finding it hard too. Some will find it the better solution to consolidate their assets and close before going bankrupt if no meaningful vision for a way forward can be found. If no inroads in the digital space have been made, they will axe them as “not being beneficial” or providing a suitable ROI and will hunker down and hope they can have a revival in the future with the same business model they always had that hadn’t prepared them for these challenges. If they go forward, they will always struggle.

The path of acceptance and change

 For organisations and individuals who are going to survive this crisis there are some hard truths they will need to accept:

• The situation is worse than thought or admitted

• They started off in a weak position as they hadn’t properly invested their efforts in their online presence before (there will be some exceptions to this)

• Doing things the same way as before will not be good enough

• Change is required - new ideas, strategies, and ways of working are needed

• For organisations – it is highly unlikely that new ideas and the skills needed will be found by going back to the same internal voices who had been involved in their weak online content before

• For organisations – it is highly likely they will need to look for external help to develop new ideas, strategies, and ways of working

• For individuals – they will need to learn new skills and think creatively

• New business/income models will be needed

• Things will continue to be different after this crisis is over

It is likely, especially with organisations, that the acceptance of these truths won’t happen until things become bad. But coming to terms with them and making changes sooner can only be a good thing.

There is also great room for hope. 

Classical music is one of the fastest growing genres of music for streaming. There is a great appetite for classical music online and anyone who figures out how to connect in the digital world has the potential for a large and supportive audience.

Not only that, but we’re a sector filled with amazing performers with a product that works on both audio and visual formats and is inherently interesting. Feel sorry for anyone who has to try and make insurance, or floss, or spoons sound interesting on social media!

The thing is, the classical music world has been sleep walking into a crisis of diminishing attendance, weak business models (for individuals and organisations), and reluctance to move online. This current crisis has forced our collective hand into engaging with the digital world, connect with new audiences, discover unknown revenue streams, and building a more robust business model.

For those who change and thrive in this difficult time will be more resilient and find themselves with stronger business models, new audiences, and footing in the digital world.

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